57% d'augmentation des polluants

pour 84% d'augmentation du trafic entre 1999 et 2015

 

 

Global Fuel Burn and Emissions Study

This project used the Advanced Emissions Model and the EEC fuel emission estimation method to calculate fuel-burn and emissions due to commercial aviation for 1999, the baseline, and predictions for the years 2005, 2010 and 2015, in the ECAC area. In order to estimate the appearance of new, more efficient, aircraft types, due to both fleet modernisation and fleet expansion, the "EUROCONTROL Fleet Change Method" has been developed. The "EUROCONTROL Fuel efficiency improvement Method" is applied to estimate technological improvements and therefore increased fuel and emission efficiency.
1999 2005 2010 2015
Flights ('000s) 22.2 29.3 35.1 40.7
Fuel (k tons) 99 126 144

156
CO2 (k tons) 312 397 455 490
This table gives the results for the ECAC area based on CFMU traffic samples and STATFOR information for the future growth. The traffic volume (Flights) represents normalised averages based on the historical traffic distribution for the baseline year (1999).
The estimated evolutions in Air traffic and Fuel-burn, based on the analysed traffic samples, are shown here (CO2 emissions are directly proportional to fuel-burn - 3.15 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of fuel).

The study analysis predicts a 57% increase of fuel-burn and CO2 emissions between 1999 and 2015 where at the same time traffic will increase for about 84%. This less-than-proportional increase is explained by changes in the airlines' fleets and the improvement in engine technology. There is, however, no room for complacency - a 57% increase in CO2 emissions is still a large problem to be dealt with.